Week 4 Preview Versus the Packers

Aaron Rodgers and the offensive juggernaut Packers come into San Francisco this weekend and Eric Mangini’s task of getting his defense on track doesn’t get any easier. The 49ers have been able to beat the Packers over the past few seasons by playing solid defense and having Kap run wild on a Green Bay team that never seemed to catch up. This year, however, the Packers offense is rolling on a completely different level than normal and the 49ers defense looks far worse than we have been accustomed to. After another embarrassing loss, this one to Arizona, many media critics and fans alike came out to discuss how absolutely terrible this team is. Not much has inspired fans over the last two weeks to be hopeful for anything resembling good defense from this team. What has been written and said may very well be accurate, and this team is struggling something fierce, but this stretch of season looked difficult before games were played. I don’t think anyone expected the 49ers to come out of the first quarter of the season looking particularly good. Week 1 allowed fans to get excited about the possibilities of this team but that team likely won’t be the consistent version of what we see this year. That being said, I don’t believe the team we saw last week will be either. The 49ers are going to have to control the ball and steady the ship this week, otherwise we are in for another long Sunday afternoon.

On offense, the 49ers should look to just show improvements. The Green Bay Packers bring in the 27th-ranked run defense and Geep Chryst should feel good about the ability of the team to pound the rock this week. As I mentioned in my preview last week, Arizona’s defense was so incredibly fast that the run game never got going against an aggressive front. The early interceptions didn’t help but Carlos Hyde almost certainly will fair better on Sunday. If the 49ers want to have any chance in this game, I’d expect them to grind the clock as much as possible to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. Of course, we could say that the team controlled the clock last week as well but the issue was long drives that weren’t productive on the scoreboard. When this team has the ball for double-digit play drives, they have to score. The defense is not as stout as in recent years and playing the field position game just doesn’t cut it. Teams, especially with the firepower that the Packers have, can score much too quick.

The passing game can’t get uglier than it was in Arizona, so Sunday will almost certainly show improvements. I’d like to see the first drive or two centered around some zone-runs to the left and predetermined reads for Kaepernick to hit easy completions. When Kap runs play action and boots to the right, with a tight end on a drag or simple flat route towards the sideline with him, he is at the peak of his dual-threat possibilities. In the preseason, the 49ers ran this concept with almost all of the tight ends on the roster and it routinely seemed to successfully gain three to seven yards. A few throws of this variety, not always on a rollout but with some simple designed reads, can facilitate in getting Kap in a rhythm and moving on from the overwhelming mess of the 1st quarter last week. Kaepernick, more than many other quarterbacks, appears to get into stretches where he is nearly unstoppable, and simultaneously can fall into slumps where almost nothing goes well. The streakiness, while terrifying for us fans, is part of what makes him special when he is on and can really drive the offense to production. Fortunately, many of his best games have come against these Packers and we could use one of those games now more than ever.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, the 49ers need to pressure the quarterback and tackle with some consistency on defense. I don’t believe that the 49ers defensive players have been as terrible as it seems. I tend to believe that Mangini is trying to be too intricate and is keeping players from doing what they are good at. Any defense in which Ahmad Brooks is trying to cover Larry Fitzgerald in the slot is an issue. Fangio succeeded as a defensive coordinator in San Francisco because he allowed his best players to do what they were best at. Aaron Lynch, while continuing to work hard and replace Aldon Smith, is not prepared to primarily drop back into coverage. The 49ers defense, and specifically Eric Mangini’s gameplans, have been exposed the last two weeks and the outcome has been disappointing.

The Packers are missing some of their impact players on offense and, while that may have almost guaranteed a loss in the past, this 49ers defense will still have a tough task against one of the top QBs in the league. Jordy Nelson, Aaron Rodgers’ favorite deep target, has been lost for the year but Green Bay continues to churn out a high scoring offense. Rodgers’ is now approaching Tom Brady territory, making less-than-average receivers look like All-Pros. James Jones, a San Jose State standout before the NFL, was released by the New York Giants just a few short weeks ago. Jones signed with Green Bay and has managed to extend the last few seasons of his career with a quarterback that he feels comfortable with. Aaron Rodgers worked with Jones in his prime and the two have picked up where they left off. The 49ers focus will likely be on Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy, the latter getting back up to speed after an ankle injury, but James Jones has quietly become Rodgers’ favorite target in the redzone. If the Packers are able to easily move the ball, Jones will certainly see plenty of targets against the smaller 49ers cornerbacks of Acker and Brock. Dontae Johnson will hopefully see some time at cornerback, putting not only speed, but size against Jones’, whom Rodgers’ routinely looks at for short scores.

For the third week in a row, the preview sounds like the same broken record. Control the game through Carlos Hyde and play sound defense against an offense that can score early and easily. The 49ers job will get easier throughout the season. Worse teams are on the schedule but the last few weeks have been against some of the best teams in the NFL and after all the losses this offseason it is clear that the 49ers are not what they have been the last few seasons. The fan base is getting antsy to see how Jim Tomsula will keep his team invested in the season as rumblings already begin in Santa Clara. Many of us fans are fed up with Jed York and how he handled this offseason but the team on the field still wears red and gold so we must remain faithful. We have seen our best teams fail in trap games to worse teams over the past four seasons and perhaps this Sunday will be one of those games for the Packers. Will it be easy? Absolutely not. But that’s why they play the game.