Week 9 Preview Versus Atlanta Falcons
I just watched a high school football team score on a 54-yard deep tpass on the final play of the game so I’m in one of those anything-can-happen moods right now. The team that won was the rival to the school that I went to, and I wasn’t exactly happy they won tonight, but man what a great reminder that this game is absolutely ridiculous and unpredictable. It is through the anything-can-happen lens that we will look at this week’s game against the Atlanta Falcons.
The 49ers are 2-6 and begin the Blaine Gabbert/Kendall Gaskins experiment against a Falcons team that isn’t as good as their record may suggest. The Falcons needed an overtime walkoff pick-6 to beat the Washington Racist Owner Who Refuses To Change The Team’s Name and lost last week to Tampa Bay and rookie quarterback Jameis Winston. Let’s avoid the easy discussion of the fact that Kap has been benched by an incompetent coaching staff (namely Geep Chryst) and the 49ers have an exciting, versatile athlete sitting on the practice squad while Pierre Thomas will get snaps at running back this week. As bad as I want to see Jarryd Hayne have an entire game to run the ball and give 49ers fans something to be excited about, it won’t be happening anytime soon. I’m still working on some Kendall Gaskins/Head Gasket nickname so give me some time but I can feel a good one coming.
Offensively, Gabbert looked solid in the preseason. And he had tons of work. Kap rarely threw the ball more than four or five times and lasted a series or two at most. Gabbert looked much improved from his time in Jacksonville and I’m convinced it was because of his time on Denzel Washington’s squad in Remember the Titans. Seriously, Gabbert looks like the Southern California, long-haired newbie that strolls in spinning a ball and talking about waves.
The Atlanta Falcons have the 22nd ranked passing defense according to ESPN statistics. Kyle McLorg, formerly known as Ruthless Sports Guy and a current contributor to Bay Area Sports Guy, tweeted earlier this week about the breaking news switch at quarterback. After breaking the news on the switch, Kyle tweeted that the 49ers have considered the switch for a couple of weeks and wanted Gabbert to face a lesser defense in the Atlanta Falcons. The statistics, which Kyle used to construct his comment, can be seen on his timeline. If you aren’t following @BASportsGuy or Kyle_McLorgBASG on Twitter then you need to get on that now. These guys have been crushing the coverage of the 49ers this season. More importantly, they’ve been honest and correct. The Falcons defense may be a result of them having an explosive offense and teams needing to pass often to keep in the game but nonetheless, the stats aren’t eye-popping.
The 49ers can exploit this weakness in the Falcons with quick, well-timed routes to Quinton Patton and Blake Bell. Desmond Trufant is a shutdown corner for the Falcons and with Anquan Boldin limited this week it is unlikely he plays much, if at all. I anticipate Trufant will follow Torrey Smith over the field and severely limit the targets he sees from Gabbert. Gabbert excelled in the preseason with limited progressions and a timing and rhythm offense that helped him quickly identify positive plays and deliver the ball effectively. The front office hasn’t handled the situation with Kap well but it will be interesting to see what kind of gameplan Chryst calls Sunday. Will he leave Gabbert out to dry? Or will this offense suddenly look effective? I’ll say that either way it isn’t Gabbert’s doing but lies more in the hands of the OC. And I’m not even slightly impressed with Chryst.
Defensively, the 49ers need to shut Julio Jones down. The most effective way is to beat him up at the line and try to get him out of rhythm early. Julio has been corralled in games this season, especially with some nagging injuries, but the 49ers should expect to be tested often. Dontae Johnson hasn’t received much playing time but his length matches up against the size of Jones well. Eric Mangini will need to be creative in his coverages that disrupt the release of Jones and doesn’t give the Falcons offense a chance to open up early.
Matt Ryan, the most consistent and boring quarterback in the league, can easily throw for 400 yards when the offense gets rolling. Kyle Shanahan has designed an offense that gets the ball out quickly to receivers on crossing routes and allows the skill position players to get yards after the catch. The linebackers will need to show good range in the passing game and secure tackles before Falcons players get downhill. Kwon Alexander, the rookie linebacker for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, played his best game of the season last week and demonstrated how to defensively stop this team. Effective tackling and a couple of turnovers can get this team out of rhythm. The Falcons rarely beat bad teams like they ought to and that gives this 49ers team even more of a shot on Sunday.
Devonta Freeman is the ultimate fantasy touchdown vulture and manages to collect on all the scores when Julio Jones leads the team down the field. Freeman accelerates through the line of scrimmage incredibly quickly but if last week is evidence, the run defense of this 49ers team is not the issue. Todd Gurley, arguably the best running back in the league right now, busted off two long runs on the 49ers and besides that was relatively stifled. On his longest touchdown run, the defense had backups in with defensive backs that failed to fill downhill. The result was an easy score for Gurley who ran untouched to the endzone. I expect the defense to do better this week in containing big plays in the running game but that may play right into the hands of the Falcons.
The 49ers could use an impressive performance like California could use some rain. Whether it comes from the offense or defense doesn’t matter. The last week has been especially difficult and as more losses pile up, the chatter about losing people will only gain steam as well. The 49ers players need to come together on the field and play hard because I’m not sure many 49er Faithful are particularly trusting of Jed York or his front office right now. Some well-played football against a Falcons team that sinks to the level of competition could be just what’s needed to ease some of this pain. The Gabbert/Gaskins experience begins Sunday afternoon. Will fans calling for changes like what they see?
